Assessing the outcome: Winners, losers and in-betweens

Thursday, November 04, 2004

GOTV: Get-Out-The-Vote efforts worked, on both sides, but not as much as some experts predicted. More than 112 million people voted, not the hoped-for 120 million. The much-ballyhooed and mostly pro-Kerry youth/cell phone vote showed up in greater numbers than in years past, as did evangelical Christians and rural voters, making it a wash for both sides.

EXIT POLLS: In 2000, we had the Voter News Service calling Florida for Gore. In 2004, the National Election Pool -- an alliance of ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox, NBC and The Associated Press -- tabulated exit poll surveys and gave Kerry the edge in battleground states on Election Day. Time to pull the plug?

GEORGE W. BUSH: No more legitimacy questions. The first candidate since 1988 to win a majority of the popular vote. Will he moderate his agenda or hew to his conservative base?

JOHN F. KERRY: Let the backbiting begin. His concession may infuriate die-hard supporters who wanted the last vote counted in Ohio, but Bush's margin of victory in the popular vote was too overwhelming for Kerry to risk further dividing the country with drawn-out legal challenges. Will he be opposition leader in the Senate -- even if Illinois' Dick Durbin or Nevada's Harry Reid gets the formal title -- or might he be shunned, like Al Gore, who at least won the popular vote?

RALPH NADER: No spoiler, he. As an independent, Nader won less than 1 percent of the popular vote, compared with 2.7 percent in 2000. Third party candidates did even worse, failing to crack the 1 percent mark.

DICK CHENEY: Republicans love him, but heart problems could lead to early retirement, allowing Bush to appoint an heir-apparent. Might it be Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, Arizona Sen. John McCain or former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani? Don't rule out Fla. Gov. Jeb Bush, who helped deliver the Sunshine State for his brother.

JOHN EDWARDS: The one-term senator never promised Kerry North Carolina, but it was hoped that his folksy manner, clear message and humble, up-by-his-bootstraps bio would appeal to rural and small-town voters in the South and Midwest. He may be back in four years. But then again, so may Howard Dean, not to mention Hillary Clinton. The race begins now.

TOM DASCHLE: Targeted by the Republicans as an obstructionist, criticized by some Democrats for his low-key manner, the South Dakotan becomes the first sitting Senate leader to be defeated since 1952. His successor in that job may be more of a fire-breathing partisan.

TOM DELAY: The Republican House majority leader crafted the controversial Texas redistricting plan which led to the defeat of four out of five targeted Democratic congressmen.

BARACK OBAMA: The Illinois Democrat becomes the Senate's only black member, but maybe not for too long. His keynote speech to the Democratic Convention had supporters talking him up for a White House run.

SENATE CONSERVATIVES: A net gain of four seats to a likely 54-45-1 split means Republicans still are a few votes shy of the 60 needed to end Democratic filibusters, but they nonetheless will likely push for more tax cuts, oil drilling in the Alaska Wildlife Refuge and conservative judicial nominees.

GAY MARRIAGE: Politics' new third rail? Prohibitions on gay marriage won by 2-to-1 and 3-1 vote margins in 11 states, expanding the ban to 17 states.

BRUCE SPRINGSTEEN: Keep your day job.

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